Extension to the Cluster Analysis done earlier

As an extension of the Cluster Analysis piece, I had tried to pitch the various serve and return statistics for each of these clusters to see how the combination works.

The ideal state for players to be across all the scatters is the top right corner as all variables considered are %s that are good-to-have-it-high. Unsurprisingly, the group that the big 3 of Roger, Rafa and Novak belong dominate this position in 2 of the 4 scatters (brown dots). The other interesting thing to note is the Pink group being in the centre of almost all the scatters and seem to be breathing under the neck of the brown dots. No wonder it is the cluster to which multiple few time GS champs like Murray, Stan, Cilic, Hewitt belong!

In the battle of the On & Off ones (involving Grigor, Haas etc.) against the consistent journeymen (comprising the likes of Seppi, Chardy etc.) the presence of Red UNDER Green easily explains who wins the battle of the return games. While the Reds are better in terms of Serving stats (the fact that their dots are mostly to the RIGHT side of Green ones), they would be better off getting better return stats.

The next thing I had done was to just select the best group (Brown) and dissect the same stats by players under this group. This is what it resulted in:

Again, the ideal state is the top right corner and the worst place to be is at the bottom left. No wonder, Verdasco, a clear outlier in this group fits to the bottom left in all 4 plots.

Novak, Roger and Rafa place themselves closer to the ideal section of the plot in at least 3 of the 4 plots. If you compare by the Return Stats (visualise drawing a horizontal line to include only the dots at the top), the guys owning up the best numbers are Rafa, Novak with the surprising presence of David Ferrer and Davydenko above Roger in all these categories! So, you now know where Roger's hiccup lied in. 

Similarly for Rafa, the presence of many names to the right of him in the first serves won % shows where his primary problems lie. Juan staying at Bottom-middle or Bottom-right indicates he has miles to go with his return game before he can actually add some legend tag against him. The positive news is, he has made his presence felt in the cluster. The bad news is, he is still recuperating and one knows not if he would be the same old Juan when he gets back on court!

Bercy Indoors Preview!

When the words 'Paris' and 'Tennis' are heard together, connecting that with Roland Garros is inevitable for any tennis fan.

Quietly, in the shadows of RG, the BNP Paribas Paris Masters (Bercy) has been churning out champions for the past 40 years. A lot of big names in the past have won at Bercy but till last year, this was probably the biggest tournament on whose silverware neither 'Roger Federer' nor 'Rafael Nadal' had never been etched. Thankfully for the tournament, Roger took off that oddity by winning it in 2011, for, if he had not, the streak would have continued this year as well as both Roger and Rafa have opted out of the event.

What's in stake?

Leading the line-up of stars is Novak Djokovic, the World No.2 this week and No.1 next week - irrespective of what happens here. Apart from proving his authority and stylishly getting back atop the rankings chart, the 2009 champion has nothing much to prove. For Andy Murray, vital points collected here can help him set his sight on the No.2 which he would happily accept if he can get there by the year end or in time for the Australian Open 2013. For other top stars like Berdych, Tsonga, last week's victors Ferrer and delPotro, wins against one another in the later stages of the tournament could give the much needed confidence ahead of their clashes-to-be at the O2 arena in London next week. The last berth for the World Tour Finals is up for grabs and the likely contenders Tipsarevic and Gasquet would be inspired to take a deep plunge into the draw. Never rule out the Outsiders like Raonic & Almagro who can mathematically still make it to the World Tour Finals. For the rest of the field, a good performance at the last event of the year would give them some nice confidence for the season ahead.

What's the draw like?

Top Half:
Victor Hanescu is the lucky loser who replaces Federer after the latter's last minute withdrawal. He is a lucky lucky loser as he gets a bye directly into round 2. Murray and Berdych are the top seeds in the top half. Murray has a tough one on paper. He has to contend with PHM, the man who had a good last week at Basel, in round 2 and has to go past Cilic in round 3 if he wants to help himself and Gasquet's chances in a potential quarter final match with Tipsarevic.
For Berdych, a  round-3 clash with Gasquet is in the offing, for which Gasquet needs to overcome either the brazilian left-hander Bellucci who has an uncanny knack to play well against top players or the South African giant Kevin Anderson! Going by the draw, if you were to choose between Tipsarevic and Gasquet on who'l buy tickets to London, choosing the Serbian would be a better thing to do.

A good first round match to look for in this half would be the one between the new father in the circuit,Baghdatis and home boy Gilles Simon. Whoever wins there can fancy his chance of reaching the last 16/last 8 thanks to Federer's withdrawal.

Bottom Half:
There are a lot of potential mouth-watering clashes in this half as well. With Novak pitted to face Raonic in round 3 and delPotro in his quarters , he has his hands full! For delPotro who, with a staggering 17-1 indoors this season,is looking for a third title in three straight weeks, Isner might offer some resistance if they are to meet in round 3. In other possible match-ups, it would be nice to see if Wawrinka can realise his potential if and  when he takes on the in-form Ferrer in a round 3 clash. For the 2008 champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the quarter appears good as he has to contend with men like Troicki/Almagro against who he has the power and skill to dominate. If Benneteau can get inspired like he did when he upset Roger at this event in 2009, it would help the french crowd see an all French clash in Tsonga vs Benneteau.

A good first round match from this half would be the one between Llodra and Stepanek. For people fed up with the baseline slugfests, this could be one match to look for as the two are known for their liking to finish off points one way or the other from the net!

In all, a lot of promising match-ups and a pleasantly vociferous Paris crowd, we can expect quite a few fireworks in the last regular event of the year. If that is not enough, here's a trivia. Since 2003, the event has seen different men win different editions and this year, one man has the skill and form to end that streak. Novak Djokovic, of Serbia. There is a Scot practising somewhere in Bercy who would want to let the streak continue! We'l see how it pans out!

In search of the 'Next Big Thing' in Men's Tennis

Rafa made ‘HIS7ORY’ with his 7th triumph at Roland Garros. It is quite likely that he will do ‘H17tory’ with his 17th slam by 2014. Despite a shuddering exit for Rafa at Wimbledon this year, it is likely that we  see a lot more Rafa – Nole heavyweight tussles in Grand Slam finals in the coming years.

If we look at tennis by decades, the decade when Bjorn Borg was accumulating Grand slam silverware, Newcombe & Connors shared much of the remaining spoils. Then came the enigmatic McEnroe only to get his glory cut short by Wilander and Lendl. They were then succeeded by Edberg & Becker. Then came the era of Sampras and Agassi who were perturbed only slightly by the likes of Courier and Rafter. When the baton was passed from Pistol Pete to a feisty Federer, it was Hewitt and Roddick who were hogging the limelight before Federer could bloom into the champion he went on to become. Federer was not even 24 years old when the ‘freak from Majorca’ (as Agassi once said) started competing for Grand Slam glory. When Rafa was around 25, Djokovic was handing out to Nadal what Nadal was handing out to Federer: trouble! A close observation on all these top-level transitions would reveal the emergence of the next big thing. With the current scenario however, it doesn’t appear that this pattern at the top is going to continue. The top-2 are set to rule the roost. Evidence below.

Rafa is 26, Djokovic is 25 and the most likely slam contenders are Murray (come on, give him a chance, at least on paper!) who’s 25, Del Potro who’s 23 (his doctors might not agree) and maybe the likes of Tsonga (his level of play in the quarters at RG gets him the space here) who is 26 again! Where are the 20-21 year olds? Are there any champions likely to emerge? Will 2012-13 be a breakthrough season? The answer to these questions, looking at performances, is pretty straight-forward – ‘not likely’. We see the ‘big four’ close to being unreachable at the top. A pattern that seems to be emerging is that the ‘next four’ are getting pretty consistent too. They appear unreachable too. This means the same Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potros of the world are the ones to bite the dust in the quarters against the big four. Much worse, those who appear to threaten them too are the Tipsarevics, the Almagros and the Isners of the world. And these players that have been mentioned are not getting any younger either.

That shows us why the first line of the article is not some impractical babbling. Do we see any young out-of-their-teen threats in the top 20? The first name that would cross one’s mind is probably Milos Raonic, who is actually just outside the top-20. (Unless you are an Australian who upon reading this piece is furious for not mentioning Bernard Tomic). Raonic is good, yes. His serves are almost impenetrable, yes. But can he handle the Rafa – Djoker slug-fests if he were to meet them on the second week in a Grand Slam? Common sense would say, ‘probably not’. And to the flag-bearers of Tomic – I’m sorry. He loses to relative unknowns in early rounds of the tournaments and he needs a much better arsenal than his fusion of 70s-2000s tennis to trouble the top players. To the Americans who place their bets on Ryan Harrison, the only words I can think of are ‘keep hoping’. For people who feel ‘The Dog’ has it in him to breakthrough, his performances over the past few months is all I will put on the platter.

The only contenders who can break the beastly duopoly of Djoko-Rafa are either 23 or 25 years old (no prizes for guessing the two); Am I forgetting someone.. Oh, Yeah. There is one more. If a certain gentleman from Switzerland can re-surge for one last hurrah, the first statement tI have made becomes null and void. With due respect to Stanislas, no, I’m not talking about him here; not about Chiudinelli either.

Second Monday beckons at SW19. Let us see if that yet to be known ‘out-of-the-teens’ slam champion emerges at the sacred church of the sport. There have been occasions when such things have happened. If not at Wimbledon, where else to expect?