ATP Top 50 Career Win % vs Age

Inspired by this viz piece by Jessica Minton on the Age vs Success Ratio of Quarterbacks in Superbowl, I set out on a similar visualization to see how things looked for the ATP Top 50, thanks to easy data availability via the stats page of tennisabstract.com.

Here is the viz:

If you can't access the whole visual, check it out here

You can hover over each dot on the plot to find more details on each player represented by the dot.

Interesting Observations from the Viz:

• Average Age of ATP Top 50 is 28.1
• Average Success % of ATP Top 50 is 62.2%
• Tennis is a tough sport. Only 4 players have a success rate of >75%, the Big Four. In other words means, only 4 of them are expected to win at least 3 out of any 4 matches played in succession
• There are JUST 7 active Grand Slam Champions (including del Potro who isn't in top 50 today), 4 other slam finalists & 5 other Masters finalists which talks of the mind-boggling domination of the select few in the upper echelon of men's tennis
• At the same time, tennis gives its opportunities. The last few in top 50 have a win rate of just above 50%. In other words, you win one, you lose one and if you do this consistently you are going to be hovering around the top 50 in the world. Another indication of how tough and brutal the knock-out format tennis follows is!
• At the age of 34, Roger Federer maintains such a high level winning % of 82% (which is on par with what Novak and Rafa have currently, before even their expected decline)
• The man with the lowest win % in top 50 is Guillermo Garcia Lopez (52% success rate)
• The youngest in the top 50, Borna Coric enjoys an above average success rate of 64% which is expected to go higher as he continues to make progress

Hope you like this.

Breaking barriers & scaling peaks - The Novak Djokovic way of Life

The most pertinent question running in the minds of followers of Tennis might well be this:
"Has Djokovic reached his peak or is there a level he is yet to reach & aspires to?"

Though the Pros in ATP circuit would like to believe they can contribute to a part of the answer, it looks like they really don't. Djokovic showed that today in the first 40 minutes in his dismantling of Roger Federer to the utter....let's call it blankness, for want of a better word.... of almost any tennis fan and that of the man on the other side of the net. I have never seen Federer being man-handled like this EVER in the time I have seen him play. I tell this after enduring so many heart-breaking losses that Federer suffered against Rafael Nadal. Against Nadal, the case has always been strategic 'noose-tightening' & slow death. Nadal would send forehand after forehand to the Federer backhand getting it to slowly cause damage to the Federer psyche making him commit errors from his forehand side as well as he attempts to neutralise by changing the patterns of play.

Today, it didn't seem so. It was a blow; a sucker-punch. Almost a knock-out! Federer was not 'allowed' to even get into the match as Djokovic took the first two sets 6-1 6-2. Federer didn't start off well with his first serves. Using that is one thing but what Novak did was much bigger than just using Federer's second serves. He was hitting clean and deep never giving Federer a single chance to come in to the net with an approach. There were no short balls on offer. The serves came back with hell of a lot of interest to paint the baseline leaving Federer utterly clueless. While Federer tried to hang in there on the baseline rallies with some good hitting which gets lost in the scoreline, the angles and power on some of Novak's forehands that came back as winners were baffling and induced multiple collective gasps from the crowd. One might agree or one might not. But what I saw today in those two sets was some hitting I have never seen before. It was as if Novak wanted to make a statement not just to Federer, not just to the crowd which he never gets to own thanks to their allegiance to Fed and Rafa, not just to the other semi-finalists but to his own self - to the self that he has carefully carved over years of toil, over years of dieting, over years of unwavering determination; To the self that kept on hanging as No.3 behind Fed and Rafa for 3.5 years before finally entering the circle. He, who once was known for his silly antics, for the nosy father of his, for fitness issues, has come a full circle with a positive H2H against Rafa (24-23) & Federer (23-22). When the entire fraternity gets ready to acknowledge the greatness of Djokovic (which will eventually happen after he wins a bunch of slams in the near future), his upper hand in these two rivalries need special space in the acknowledgment just for the fact that only with the most recent matches against them has he ever gone on to have a lead in both the H2H series. Precisely, for 10 long years, he has been chasing them before finally nosing ahead. All that after close to 4.5 years of utter domination in the 10 year period. That talks of something more than just domination. It talks of realisation of potential, of belief in abilities.

Djokovic seems to agree.
"In the end of the day it’s important that your convictions are stronger than your doubts", he told Jim Courier when asked on the fascinating H2H chase journeys.

Being able to stay consistently at the top of the game despite literally owning the field is as special as any quality a sportsman can possess! The reversal of H2Hs has just been the by-product of that.

As for Federer, I would have liked to see him more at the net. It is high time he realises the only space on the court that is going to be of any help for him against Novak is right there. He could fail like he did in the game he got broken in Set 4 but that was the right play. Ill-luck in the form of net cord and an unreal passing shot from Novak were what contributed to the break and not the idea of coming to the net. Having said that, not a lot of times does Federer get the credit he deserves for bringing the fight to the court in testing times. Not for nothing does the stat that he has never lost a Grand Slam match without creating break points stand true. For a moment, it looked like today might be that day; that today might be the day he would succumb to the loss by a scoreline worse than his worst outing in a hardcourt slam match which was eons back in 2001, when I was trying to figure out Integral Calculus (not that I have done it now!). But he wasn't ready to give up. In the midst of getting back to the groove with his service games holding (after being taken to 30-30 or deuce in almost every game) in set 3, he just had to come up with magic to create breaking opportunities which he did with an unbelievable run to the net to convert a Novak dropper into a winner. He held a further two times in the set against all odds to add respectability to the scoreline and more credence to his fighting quality. The fourth was a closely fought affair (with Federer squandering three second serves in the very first Novak service game) and just before Novak closed the affair 6-2 6-1 3-6 6-3 with 6 straight points came the point that explains why Federer is Federer & why he needs to keep playing the next week, the next season and the next decade to come.

Novak comes to the final as the most firm favourite for betters since, probably, Federer played Gonzalez in the 2007 Australian Open final. The other semi-final is expected to be a fine battle between one of the game's best returners in Andy Murray and one of its fine servers in Milos Raonic. Even as I feel Andy deserves a trophy in Australia (where he has reached 4 finals), I would like for it to happen later. I would like to see Raonic play Novak not because he can pose the No.1 any trouble but for the reason that the presence of a 25 year old in the final of a Grand Slam might augur well for the future as other 25 year olds can get the urge, the hope and aspire to reach there. Novak Djokovic seems to be in the mood to stay atop for the seasons to follow. You just can't let a 34 year old try and battle him all alone. Buck up, fellas. Climb fast. Go on and give Djokovic a poke at his back. He has set up his camp up there somewhere, go shake the tent.

Five Major Highlights from US Open 2014

US Open, the slam that used to be Federer's turf for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 in which period he defeated five different opponents to claim the title, suddenly got a lot unpredictable seeing 4 different winners in the next 4 years. Rafa Nadal was about to restore order in 2013 but this year's edition takes the cake for unpredictability in the men's draw over which a lot would have lost money on bets and very few would have gained huge rewards. They deserved to, if they had backed Kei Nishikori & Marin Cilic - two from the Lost Boys generation of tennis - to be the lone men standing on the third monday at Flushing Meadows.

A quick summary of five key takeaways from this year's US Open here:

Child's Play for Serena

1. Serena is Serena, no matter what!The women's draw saw a number of upsets which were no shockers given the characteristic inconsistency seen & expected off a number of top-10 players. Simona, Aga, Ana, Masha, Kerber & a struggling Vika were all shown the doors in matches they were expected to win. There was one player in the mix who certainly was not expected to bow out despite the fact that she had not reached Quarters in any of the slams this year - Serena Williams. Serena was on quest for her 18th Major to tie her with legends like Navratilova & Chris Evert in terms of slam count and she was unwavering in that quest - She won the title without dropping a set, and not dropping more than 3 games in any of the 14 sets she played! In tennis terms, that is 'God Level' of play. She is all set to chase the Stefanie target. I won't place any bets against her doing that,even if she is 4 slams away from it.

2. Some New girls, Some Old girls

Take Serena out of the picture and there were a few delightful stories from the women's draw. There is a young Swiss who is making rapid progress this season - Belinda Bencic. She made some giant killing on her way to the Quarters but was tamed by a veteran Chinese who had a breakthrough of sorts. Props to Shuai Peng, the doubles specialist for making a deep run. It was a pity the girl who had a heart surgery as a kid had to suffer heat cramps and retire in the first semi-final of her career against Caroline Wozniacki. The Dane was the protagonist of another sweet story at the US Open with her inspiring run to the final after she was unceremoniously thrown off her relationship by the Golfing champ Rory McIlroy. She has chosen a wonderful means to divert her attention and that seems to be playing hard & playing better. Kudos!

3. Brothers, Legends!

Few partnerships have been as mind-boggling as that of Mike & Bob Bryan! The duo had not won a slam this season & were stranded at 99 titles together for quite some time. The way they played this tournament makes one think they delayed the inevitable, as if on purpose, just to choose the most grand of stages, the biggest of courts to get to Title No.100! They did that in style. The fact that the 2nd best partnership (61 titles of Woodbridge/Woodforde) is light-years away from their tally underlines the weight of this achievement of the left/right twin pair.

4. Curtains on the Fab Four Era?

It has been the first slam since the Australian Open of 2005 to not have at least one of Roger, Rafa and Novak in the final. It is also the first major since French 2005 to have two first-time finalists. It is the first year since 2003 that we have had two first-time slam winners. It is also the second time in three years that we have had 4 different winners for the 4 slams. Does the combination of all these stats mean the Fab Four era is inching closer to its end?! Inasmuch as I am tempted to say 'Yes', it still seems early days for any such bold statements. They have still won 2 off 4 slams and 5 off the 7 Masters titles this year! The year may have set the ball rolling for the Lost Boys and the 90s generation to step up and be counted but the big guns are still dominating the sport with as much intent as they have in the past. The rest of the year and the World Tour final will provide a better answer to that looming question. Having said that, Don't be surprised if the Big 3 dominate the reminder of the season. They are going nowhere. At least for the moment.

5. Boom, The Cilic Clinic!

Marin Cilic would not have featured beyond the Quarters in most (if not all) of the projections of the men's draw but his season and his Wimbledon run in particular had all signs that nobody cared to see. He stretched Novak to five sets there. After serving a 4 month ban for alleged drug intake, Cilic seems to have set the time up to take the rust off his game, use Goran's inputs to start enjoying the game and he came in to week-2, scraped through a tough 5-setter against Gilles Simon & then literally set up a clinic on Arthur Ashe and showed how professionally one can lay hands on the trophy coveted and longed by the ATP pros. In his straight-sets wins over Berdych, Federer & Kei with unbelievable serving, aggressive approach in hugging the baseline, power-packed shots off both wings, he has played the best tennis we have seen from anyone in week 2 of any slam in the last few years. It is one thing to say Kei was nervous, lacked the energy to match Cilic but is quite another to appreciate his getting over the emotions he must have run through the last year or so and get the Win playing clean tennis on his own terms.

Idemo Chilaa!

The best bit of the tournament was this quote from Cilic:
“For all the other players that are working hard, this is a big sign, a big hope, that if you’re working hard, things are going to pay off.” 

It won't be incorrect to say this bit from his winner's speech was more classy and inspiring than the clinical display he put forth in the business end of the tournament. That is saying something!

The ATP Aces in aceing opponents

The ATPWorldTour website has been getting  better in terms of providing career stats of players. I have thought about putting it to some use, making some analyses out of it and seeing if they lead to some interesting insights!
I start it off with this one involving one of the most loved-about stat in the sport - Aces! The site provided a list of the top 500 men to have sent the maximum no. of aces in their career. Looking at that number alone may not make sense for the reason that someone like Raonic would feature low because of the lesser number of years he has been a pro than, say, Ivan Ljubicic. So, I have taken another parameter 'Aces/Match' and have combined the 'Aces' vs 'Aces per match' into an X-Y chart to see where the 500 players turn up.
Here is a look at the chart. You can hover over each circle to get details of the players. I have purposely annotated some players' names to draw some highlights out of the exercise. Additionally, the chart will also allow you to play with and compare players by giving the option of filtering specific players. Feel free to play with it. Believe me, this filter option is good fodder for some insightful time-pass for any tennis lover.

Learn About Tableau

Some of the highlights that can be inferred from the chart above:
1. The chart is so crowded towards the bottom left indicating how difficult it is to serve Ace bombs day after day, set after set! A lot of the players are in the '2-6 Aces/Match & <1000 aces="" br="" career="" category.="" in="">2. The ones towards the extreme right form a scarce community and the names there are all the ones we get reminded when we think of Aces! Goran Ivanisevic, unsurprisingly, leads by ace count but Ivo Karlovic is way ahead of all others with a staggering 18.72 Aces/Match! Unbelievable number that.
3. Pete Sampras and Roger Federer are not compared and pitted against each other for just their single-hand backhand and grandslam count. They are as close as they are in terms of their Acing pattern as they are in the specified areas. Pete, though, has a pretty solid 10 Aces/Match to Federer's 8!
4. Aces alone don't win one matches - If Goran and Ivo are examples for that theory, the corollary is well defended by the locations of Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic in this chart. The numbers of Rafa are a shocking surprise: He averages 3 Aces/Match! It is significant to mention that Rafa & Ferrer stay close in their Acing patterns.
5. Mildy surprising is the fact that Andy Murray out-numbers Nole in this matrix. He can send rockets,we all knew but would we have thought he would be serving 1.5 aces more than Djokovic on an average?
6. The Ivanisevic effect is quite evident in the current generation of players when you take a look at those who fly high on the Y-Axis!
There is Ivo and then there are two up and coming North Americans in John Isner and Milos Raonic (I don't know if Isner qualifies for that sort of an adjective given the horrid phase he is going through!). The two average more than 15 Aces/Match!

Compare that with the 2.7 of someone like Kei Nishikori and that will make you appreciate the beauty of this sport! Two players could be contrasting in one very important stat but still could stay close in Rankings, thanks to the dynamics of so many other parameters that come into play. More on those other parameters in  subsequent articles!
Till then, enjoy and play with this siloed piece of the puzzle.

Bercy Indoors Preview!

When the words 'Paris' and 'Tennis' are heard together, connecting that with Roland Garros is inevitable for any tennis fan.

Quietly, in the shadows of RG, the BNP Paribas Paris Masters (Bercy) has been churning out champions for the past 40 years. A lot of big names in the past have won at Bercy but till last year, this was probably the biggest tournament on whose silverware neither 'Roger Federer' nor 'Rafael Nadal' had never been etched. Thankfully for the tournament, Roger took off that oddity by winning it in 2011, for, if he had not, the streak would have continued this year as well as both Roger and Rafa have opted out of the event.

What's in stake?

Leading the line-up of stars is Novak Djokovic, the World No.2 this week and No.1 next week - irrespective of what happens here. Apart from proving his authority and stylishly getting back atop the rankings chart, the 2009 champion has nothing much to prove. For Andy Murray, vital points collected here can help him set his sight on the No.2 which he would happily accept if he can get there by the year end or in time for the Australian Open 2013. For other top stars like Berdych, Tsonga, last week's victors Ferrer and delPotro, wins against one another in the later stages of the tournament could give the much needed confidence ahead of their clashes-to-be at the O2 arena in London next week. The last berth for the World Tour Finals is up for grabs and the likely contenders Tipsarevic and Gasquet would be inspired to take a deep plunge into the draw. Never rule out the Outsiders like Raonic & Almagro who can mathematically still make it to the World Tour Finals. For the rest of the field, a good performance at the last event of the year would give them some nice confidence for the season ahead.

What's the draw like?

Top Half:
Victor Hanescu is the lucky loser who replaces Federer after the latter's last minute withdrawal. He is a lucky lucky loser as he gets a bye directly into round 2. Murray and Berdych are the top seeds in the top half. Murray has a tough one on paper. He has to contend with PHM, the man who had a good last week at Basel, in round 2 and has to go past Cilic in round 3 if he wants to help himself and Gasquet's chances in a potential quarter final match with Tipsarevic.
For Berdych, a  round-3 clash with Gasquet is in the offing, for which Gasquet needs to overcome either the brazilian left-hander Bellucci who has an uncanny knack to play well against top players or the South African giant Kevin Anderson! Going by the draw, if you were to choose between Tipsarevic and Gasquet on who'l buy tickets to London, choosing the Serbian would be a better thing to do.

A good first round match to look for in this half would be the one between the new father in the circuit,Baghdatis and home boy Gilles Simon. Whoever wins there can fancy his chance of reaching the last 16/last 8 thanks to Federer's withdrawal.

Bottom Half:
There are a lot of potential mouth-watering clashes in this half as well. With Novak pitted to face Raonic in round 3 and delPotro in his quarters , he has his hands full! For delPotro who, with a staggering 17-1 indoors this season,is looking for a third title in three straight weeks, Isner might offer some resistance if they are to meet in round 3. In other possible match-ups, it would be nice to see if Wawrinka can realise his potential if and  when he takes on the in-form Ferrer in a round 3 clash. For the 2008 champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the quarter appears good as he has to contend with men like Troicki/Almagro against who he has the power and skill to dominate. If Benneteau can get inspired like he did when he upset Roger at this event in 2009, it would help the french crowd see an all French clash in Tsonga vs Benneteau.

A good first round match from this half would be the one between Llodra and Stepanek. For people fed up with the baseline slugfests, this could be one match to look for as the two are known for their liking to finish off points one way or the other from the net!

In all, a lot of promising match-ups and a pleasantly vociferous Paris crowd, we can expect quite a few fireworks in the last regular event of the year. If that is not enough, here's a trivia. Since 2003, the event has seen different men win different editions and this year, one man has the skill and form to end that streak. Novak Djokovic, of Serbia. There is a Scot practising somewhere in Bercy who would want to let the streak continue! We'l see how it pans out!

In search of the 'Next Big Thing' in Men's Tennis

Rafa made ‘HIS7ORY’ with his 7th triumph at Roland Garros. It is quite likely that he will do ‘H17tory’ with his 17th slam by 2014. Despite a shuddering exit for Rafa at Wimbledon this year, it is likely that we  see a lot more Rafa – Nole heavyweight tussles in Grand Slam finals in the coming years.

If we look at tennis by decades, the decade when Bjorn Borg was accumulating Grand slam silverware, Newcombe & Connors shared much of the remaining spoils. Then came the enigmatic McEnroe only to get his glory cut short by Wilander and Lendl. They were then succeeded by Edberg & Becker. Then came the era of Sampras and Agassi who were perturbed only slightly by the likes of Courier and Rafter. When the baton was passed from Pistol Pete to a feisty Federer, it was Hewitt and Roddick who were hogging the limelight before Federer could bloom into the champion he went on to become. Federer was not even 24 years old when the ‘freak from Majorca’ (as Agassi once said) started competing for Grand Slam glory. When Rafa was around 25, Djokovic was handing out to Nadal what Nadal was handing out to Federer: trouble! A close observation on all these top-level transitions would reveal the emergence of the next big thing. With the current scenario however, it doesn’t appear that this pattern at the top is going to continue. The top-2 are set to rule the roost. Evidence below.

Rafa is 26, Djokovic is 25 and the most likely slam contenders are Murray (come on, give him a chance, at least on paper!) who’s 25, Del Potro who’s 23 (his doctors might not agree) and maybe the likes of Tsonga (his level of play in the quarters at RG gets him the space here) who is 26 again! Where are the 20-21 year olds? Are there any champions likely to emerge? Will 2012-13 be a breakthrough season? The answer to these questions, looking at performances, is pretty straight-forward – ‘not likely’. We see the ‘big four’ close to being unreachable at the top. A pattern that seems to be emerging is that the ‘next four’ are getting pretty consistent too. They appear unreachable too. This means the same Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potros of the world are the ones to bite the dust in the quarters against the big four. Much worse, those who appear to threaten them too are the Tipsarevics, the Almagros and the Isners of the world. And these players that have been mentioned are not getting any younger either.

That shows us why the first line of the article is not some impractical babbling. Do we see any young out-of-their-teen threats in the top 20? The first name that would cross one’s mind is probably Milos Raonic, who is actually just outside the top-20. (Unless you are an Australian who upon reading this piece is furious for not mentioning Bernard Tomic). Raonic is good, yes. His serves are almost impenetrable, yes. But can he handle the Rafa – Djoker slug-fests if he were to meet them on the second week in a Grand Slam? Common sense would say, ‘probably not’. And to the flag-bearers of Tomic – I’m sorry. He loses to relative unknowns in early rounds of the tournaments and he needs a much better arsenal than his fusion of 70s-2000s tennis to trouble the top players. To the Americans who place their bets on Ryan Harrison, the only words I can think of are ‘keep hoping’. For people who feel ‘The Dog’ has it in him to breakthrough, his performances over the past few months is all I will put on the platter.

The only contenders who can break the beastly duopoly of Djoko-Rafa are either 23 or 25 years old (no prizes for guessing the two); Am I forgetting someone.. Oh, Yeah. There is one more. If a certain gentleman from Switzerland can re-surge for one last hurrah, the first statement tI have made becomes null and void. With due respect to Stanislas, no, I’m not talking about him here; not about Chiudinelli either.

Second Monday beckons at SW19. Let us see if that yet to be known ‘out-of-the-teens’ slam champion emerges at the sacred church of the sport. There have been occasions when such things have happened. If not at Wimbledon, where else to expect?

Lessons for life from the 6 hour epic!

I am wondering if there is any other sport that can keep one engrossed continuously for hours together! There’s no sport like tennis in that regard and the duo of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal just proved that displaying athleticism, true grit and passion for the sport in style and in the process, they have added a glorious chapter in the ‘book of rivalries’ that the sport of tennis has given us over the years. In addition to the entertainment that the two gladiators offered, there were lessons for life – of immense value – that was intrinsically part of the 6 hour saga at Rod Laver Arena. Shown below are 5 distinct lessons that I could decipher from the contest that kept me engrossed to my television set and even dumbfounded me at some crucial moments.

1. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over

“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over” goes the tagline of Stallone’s Rocky! A tennis crusader who has an unmistakable resemblance to the Rambo actor showed exactly that after Rafael Nadal went 4-2 up in the decider. He churned out a comeback that was miraculous given the fact that he had exceeded ten hours of marathon tennis in the last 48 hours prior to reaching that score line! Anyone else in the ATP circuit would have faltered (whether or not they would have stretched Rafa to five sets is a different question) if Nadal was at such a commanding position in the fifth set in such a humdinger but not a certain Nole from Serbia.  The fact that Djokovic proved the Rocky verse in the US Open ’11 semis against Roger Federer when the Swiss was serving at 5-3 40-15 match point is another startling point!

2. Your past has got nothing to do with what you are/ what you will be.

Novak Djokovic was once a bunny of the likes of Andy Roddick and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. There was even a time when he used to retire prematurely from grand slam matches. He was the last name one would associate with fitness.

“Isn’t it both of them? And a back and a hip? A cramp, Bird flu, Anthrax, SARS, Common cough and cold” – Roddick would quip on Djokovic’s fitness before their quarterfinal clash at US Open in 2008. But when Djokovic nearly pulled off a victory after battling 4 hours with Nadal on the dirt in Madrid in 2009, there was enough evidence that a turn of tables was around the corner. Yesterday, after battling out the defense of Nadal (arguably the fittest of them all) for 5 hours and 53 minutes, there is no doubt on how brilliantly the Serb has turned his fitness around in the last few years.  Even Roddick knows it now. He tweeted after the epic “Djokovic-Rafa. Absolute war. Physicality of tennis has been taken to another level in the last 5 years. 6 straight hours of power/speed”

3. Defeats need not always be the worst of things. One could feel ‘happy’ about defeats that follow struggle.

Nadal, in his post-match presser (where he used the word ‘happy’ 9 times in the conference) said “I am not happy to lose the final, yes, but that’s one of the losses that I am more happy in my career.” Need I say more! Pearls of wisdom these from Rafa.

4. Seize the opportunity that comes your way; Else, the payoff could be huge.

Ask Djokovic how he would have wished to play better if given another chance when Rafa was 0-40 down at 3-4 in the 4^th set. You may get second opinion from Rafa on how he rues the missed pass when he was 4-2 30-15 up in the deciding set.

5. Never,ever give up – Even when what you are up against is a mountain of trouble.

The point that explains this – the 31 shot rally at 4-4 in set 5;

The mountain – Novak Djokovic who came up with at least 4 potential winners in the course of the rally;

The one who gives the lesson on not to give up – Rafael Nadal who defended with immense determination and made Nole fall down.

Who knows? On another day, such a point would have sapped Nole’s confidence and Rafa might have broken in the next game to win the slam. The way Nole bounced back after the rally is another proven elucidation of the fact that one must never, ever give up!

These are among the lessons that the final, in particular, and tennis, in general, have taught us time and again. Whether we take it in or not is a question that is best left to personal pondering.

Having born in the 80s, I am glad that I was born in an era that has allowed me to watch and appreciate the rivalries of Edberg-Becker, Pete-Andre, Roger-Rafa and now Rafa-Nole, each special in its own distinct way! As I had mentioned earlier, with the Australian open final of 2012, a new chapter of epic proportions just got added to a classic book and the lessons these chapters have brought forth are worth remembering and reminiscing for the years to come!

 

125th Championships at Wimbledon - Privileged to witness it!

“If you can meet with triumph and disaster

and treat those two impostors just the same”

It is time for the players to get inspired before going on court with a look at this hard-hitting verse from Rudyard Kipling’s poem ‘If..’ in the hall of fame of the most sacred of sports arenas around the world. The 125th Championships at Wimbledon will start come Monday and the draws are out today.

On the men’s side, this could probably be the most intense Wimbledon in a few years as the top 4, all 4 having reached the semi final Roland Garros and 3 of them at the Australian Open, have been on top slam form and a ‘Seeds 1-4’ Semi final line-up is more likely this year than it was in previous years. Bjorn Borg, the legendary Swede who has had 6 titles at SW19, feels Men’s tennis is enjoying its ‘golden age’ with the current top 4 appearing to be the best among top 4s of any era. Coming from a man who has had rivalries with the likes of McEnroe & Lendl, it goes on to show how privileged tennis fans of this era are. But, Wimbledon is not a place where certainties are undisturbed.
It is here that Goran Ivanisevic defied all odds to win the title as a wildcard in 2001.
It is here that Richard Krajicek stunned Pete Sampras enroute the title in 1996.
It is here that the baton was passed from Sampras to a pony-tailed Federer when no one expected it.
It is here that an inspired Berdych got the better of Roger in the quarter final stage last year!
So, expecting the unexpected is not a silly option at all at the Championships which has a court dubbed as the ‘graveyard’s court’ for the number of upsets that have been caused there!

Here’s a peep into the men’s draw.
On the top half are Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.

The defending champion has arguably been the best over the last few years at the Wimbledon grass and hasn’t been defeated here since 2007. His loss at the hands of Tsonga at Queen’s last week is to be considered just an aberration and despite his probable match ups with countryman Pablo Andujar who gave him a good fight at Paris, Del Potro (whose grass record has been next to nothing) & Berdych , it appears that he would sail through to the semis at ease where he will face Andy and his legion of british supporters!

Andy Murray carries the British hopes, yet again, but after semi final showings in the last two years and his best performance on clay this year, his chances to get his first slam at his home look bright. The likely hurdles in his path are the stylish Swiss Stan Wawrinka with whom he played that epic five setter in 2009 on the day when the centre court roof made its debut & the American Andy.If he can pull off a nice win in the probable Q/F match against Roddick, who has had a terrific association with Wimbledon, it will do his confidence a world of good and there’s always the partisan English crowd to encourage him.

The lower half boasts of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic; A semis tussle between these two seems to have become a norm in almost all slams! No regrets though; Blessed are we to see the two most elegant players fight it out for a spot in the final against the most likely candidate from the other half – The Mallorcan bull!

Roger Federer, the 6 time Wimbledon champion, is chasing Pete Sampras’s record for the most titles at the sprawling lawns of Wimbledon. With a good showing in the Parisian clay, he would back himself in a surface he has been lethal over nearly a decade. He had a difficult first round last year and a Quarterfinal exit ensued that. So, it is important for him to shrug off the first round hassles and look for making himself available for the business end of the tournament. A title here - he sets as the primary goal at the beginning every year – would be the one he would badly need, if he is to get to that 287 weeks at No.1 record. His probable match up with Nalbandian would be nostalgic but there’s not much threat, on paper, for Federer in his quarter.

Novak Djokovic, the golden-streak man, tasted his first defeat of the year at the French Open but that takes nothing away from his position as a chief contender for the title here. He hasn’t been at a final at Wimbledon yet with his best showings (Semi finals) coming in 2007 & 2010 but he would consider this to be his best shot at reaching the final and going even one step further, for, a slam on Grass is a dream for anyone who has won it elsewhere. He has had shocking defeats at the hands of the likes of Safin, Haas & Berdych in the past. So, his path to the semi final is going to be treacherous but his 43-1 record this year will do a world of good to his confidence and he is almost certain to be at the semi final, the only paper-hurdle being a possible Q/F clash against Soderling.

Two other interesting first round matches to look for are
1. John Isner (vs) Nicolas Mahut – The draw has made statistics go for a walk by making the 1/127 probability a certainty! Let us hope for a good match there, but not a 70-68 fifth set for the players’ sakes!
2. Robin Soderling (vs) Philipp Petzschner – This one is a potential toughie for Robin as Philipp is good on grass and is no pushover. He stretched Rafael Nadal to his limits last year and would definitely want to pull off an upset against the Swede

Dangerous floaters like Andy Roddick, Juan Martin Del Potro & Tsonga can collectively cause one or two upsets (against Berdych, Soderling, Ferrer) but it is almost certain that the one to lift the trophy would be one among Rafa, Roger, Nole and Andy(I’m just trying to be safe in saying just the first name ‘Andy’ cause the other Andy is the only one outside the top 4 who would consider himself worthy of a title at Wimbledon!)

Tequila shots of Tennis

The title was meant to be attractive. It must be read - 'the killer' shots of tennis.
Tennis is not just about fitness. There is something called finesse that is crucial in the sport and one must know when to pounce on his prey and that pouncing is the tequila shot.

Tennis is an attractive sport to watch because of the options available for players to win points and the geometries involved in shot-making. Decisions are made in a split-second and among the top 20-30 players, there is not much difference in the talents they possess. When it comes to separating the top 3-4 from the rest, it boils down to the percentage of times the correct shot-making decisions are made. So it would be unsurprising to find that the best in the business when it comes to some of the popular eye-catching shots are the big names of the big game.

This piece would focus on some of the scintillating shots that have ‘winner’ written all over them and the players who play that shot best.

1. Forehand down the line
This is the bread and butter shot if the need is to suddenly confuse the opponent in a rally which thus far had been going well for both the players. It is a high risk shot but the dividends are too attractive not to be tried. The man who plays this with precision is the world’s numero uno (could change soon) Rafael Nadal. He keeps churning out mid-court forehands shot after shot and suddenly comes out with this winner and the fist-pump would follow. The powerful Swede Robin Soderling too plays this shot well but is erratic and plays it long quite a lot of times.

2. Forehand crosscourt inside-out

This is a deft ploy which requires setting up play as its pre-requisite. One has to be in control of the point before playing this shot. The opponent needs to be made to hit the ball to one end and in doing so must be positioned in the same end. That would give much room to play this shot turning and making a spontaneous winner out of it. When the ball is short and when the player is in, many (almost all top players) play this shot well but the one who plays this with sublime touch from behind the baseline and gets incredible winners out of it is the man with the most grandslam titles in the history of the men’s game – Roger Federer. The angles he uses to play this shot when he is on top form are inhumane, out of the world! Andy Roddick is another wonderful player of this shot and then there is Juan Martin Del Potro. If he becomes the legend he is expected to become, he will have a lot of say with this particular shot in the future.

3. Backhand up/down the line
This is one of those shots that separate the very best from the rest –adds an extra dimension. For example, this is one shot that separates a Jo Wilfried Tsonga from a Novak Djokovic. While Tsonga doesn’t play it confidently, Djokovic rips this shot at ease and earns an instant point. This one too, must be played out of the blue by setting up the point after playing a few cross court backhands – A dreadful defence to offence shot! Players who play well off both the wings play this shot well – Djokovic,Nadal,Federer,Soderling,Wawrinka in that order.

4. Forehand and approach to the net
This is a high risk attacking option when a player is not in full control of a rally but is the easiest of ways to score a point when his opponent is defensive and crumbling in the rally. One needs impeccable footwork to carry out this shot as this might not exactly be a winner. It sets up the point for a winner off the next shot. Roger Federer’s beautiful approaches in the grass lawns of Wimbledon are a treat to watch.

5. Backhand crosscourt

This is that shot that gives considerable advantage for a double-hand player against a player who employs a single-hand backhand. This one is all about using the angles to the fullest. Rafael Nadal torments his opponents with his powerful crosscourt backhands that are virtually unreachable. Roger Federer and the inconsistent Russian Nikolay Davydenko are quite effective too. But this season, Rafa is being given a taste of his own medicine by Novak Djokovic who is combining terrific angles and power in this shot to ensure the running machine Nadal doesn’t reach the ball. At this point, Nole is the best player around with this shot.

6. Forehand pass
When the opponent is at the net, there is no better way to break his confidence than sending a blitzkrieg of a pass so near yet so far for the opponent to return and the top players are all best in this business. Pete Sampras has been the legend of playing running crosscourt passing shots but in the current era Rafael Nadal does this very well and breaks the confidence of his rival with the shot following it up with his trademark fist-pump and a fuming look at the pitiful man on the other side of the net. But, to me, the best in this shot is the Scot Andy Murray. He has a lot of heart, backs himself up in taking the high-risk option and plays this shot to success at crucial break point opportunities. No wonder he is one of the players with an amazing number of breaks of serve.

7. Backhand pass
It is quite difficult to play the backhand pass for a double hander for want of control but having said that, Nadal plays this at a good success rate but the players whose backhand passes give pleasure to a tennis fan are those who have single-hand backhands – Especially Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet – Sheer class !

8. Backhand Slice
This shot is owned by RogerFederer. He employs it to destabilise his opponent during the course of a rally. It is akin to the famous Undertaker move of choking an opponent’s throat before slamming him down. The change in pace offered by a slice followed by a free-flowing shot or vice-versa is enough to confuse and get the opponent off balance during a rally. Federer uses this shot to move from defence to offence at the unpredictable of times during the course of a rally.

9. Volley
Thanks to the baseline counter-punching started by Lleyton Hewitt and then made extremely popular by Rafa, the volley is almost as extinct as the Siberian Tiger. Wimbledon used to boast of short rallies and sweet vollies but those days are long gone. However, much is being spoken of this shot and of Roger’s coach Paul Annacone after Federer’s success from mid season 2010 from when he started using it much better like in his 2003-05 days. One person who still patronises the volley and does it very well is the Czech Radek Stepanek. When it comes to drop volley, one of the sexiest shots in the sport, Federer and Djokovic are supreme frontrunners.

10. Tweener!

The between-the-legs shot, more popularly dubbed the 'tweener' is the ‘YOUTUBE’ shot of tennis. Discovered in the 80s by Yannick Noah, the eccentric Frenchman, it has been used time and again by players, when in despair ; when they have no options left and more often than not, it ends in failure to fetch the point. In some cases, players suffer hits at vital parts attempting to play this one!Andy Roddick got one right in his vitals once.This is a shot for the occasion and no one seems to play it better than the man who rises to the occasion,TMF - The Mighty Fed. The tweener that Roger Federer hit to set match points during his semifinal against Nole at US Open 2009 is highly popular. He virtually owns this shot and when Rafa played an incredible tweener this year at Madrid, Roger followed that up with an even better one just a week after that in Rome against Gasquet as if to say ‘Please stay away;This is my territory’.

And there ends a rather technical note on some of the finest of shots in men’s tennis.

US O GO!

US Open 2010 Preview

There are just a few hours left for the last grand slam of the year to go! Last but not the least will definitely hold good for the US Open as it is one of the most celebrated events in the sport , happening at the Flushing meadows in the Apple city of New York.

This year’s open is marred in the women’s circuit with the withdrawals of Justin Henin,Serena Williams among others which leaves last year’s titlist Kim Clijsters and runner-up Caroline Wozniacki as the hot favorites for having a shot at the title this year. In the men’s circuit, the options are wide enough this year. The winner of last year’s USO Juan Martin del Potro would unfortunately be unable to defend his title owing to injury & the Open is to see a different champion for sure. Who will that be?? Let us play the cards.


The contenders

 World No.1, Rafael Nadal:
Why he can?
He is back at the helm winning two slams in a row & sweeping the entire clay court season.
He needs this one badly to complete a career golden slam – which only Agassi has managed to do.
Many pundits feel that a US Open crown in his repertoire would claim his contention of being one of the very best the game has ever seen. If that cannot motivate, nothing else can.

Why he can’t?
He hasn’t reached the finals at Flushing Meadows even once. His best has been a semi-final appearance. Losing in four sets to Murray in 08 & receiving a thrashing at del Potro’s hands last year.
The fast paced courts wouldn’t help him as well as they can in clay. Guys will have fast answers to his top spinners.

World No.2, Roger Federer:

Why he can?
He is the in-form player with a final loss at Toronto & a trophy at Cincinnati.
He has won the US Open in 2004,05,06,07,08 & was runner-up after leading 2 sets to 1 in 09.PERIOD.

Why he can’t?
He is 29 now. Getting old is a significant thing in a sport like tennis.
His consistency at slams has slowly been waning off.
Has the difficult of draws – to face Soderling in the Q/Fs.

World No.3, Novak Djokovic:

Why he can?
He has it in him to win a grand slam. He has shown that.
He has been consistent at the US Open reaching the final once in 07 & semis in 08,09.

Why he can’t?
He is highly unpredictable and his respiratory disorders don’t help his cause either.
He has hurdles in Andy Roddick & Roger Federer to reach the final.

World No.4, Andy Murray

Why he can?
He reached the final in 08 defeating Nadal. Had reached the final at Aus open this year once again defeating Nadal & losing to Roger. So he has the hard court game to threaten the bigwigs.
He needs a slam badly to shrug off the ‘the best player not to have won a slam’ image – That can arouse him bigtime.
Defeated Rafa & Roger a fortnight back at Toronto. What a confidence boost that could be!

Why he can’t?
Has to defeat Nadal once again to reach the final. Defeating Rafa three times in Slams. Has anybody done that?! I doubt..
Has to ward off his inconsistent shows. Last year he was thrashed by Marin Cilic. That was unexpected.

Other darkhorses:

Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych – Guys who have already spoiled Roger’s party at Paris & Wimbledon this year can cause such upsets and break into the semis at New York too. Watch out for these big serving boom forehand players.

Andy Roddick & Nikolay Davydenko – Veterans who have the potent WMDs with them but the time against them. They are getting close to 30 and they are no Roger. It is a make or break year for these two and that might stir them to cause some damage to the draw.

This US Open is not an easy one to predict but nothing can better a final showdown that reads:

[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

VS

[2] Roger Federer (SUI)

They haven't met in a slam since Aus 2009.And I am looking forward to that showdown.

Two,Three and Four

The stage is set. The three men are next only to the World No.1 Rafael Nadal.The media needs to talk on the favorite for Runner-up slot at RG.The winner is already there,adjusting his trousers,the locks of his hair and practising how to stare disdainfully at the pitiable person who would stand at the other side of the net wondering how soon the time would pass.

It is not such a bad thing being behind Rafa.Infact – Let us be practical here -they can climb only that higher when the Nadal thunderbolt is rocking the way he is. Over to the three of them now.

At No.4,he stands the best example to the cliché “Numbers don’t always tell the true story”. At present,and the present has been present with him since Cinci 08, Andy Murray stands the second best in the world.With his counter attacking game and execution of smart game plans against most of the top ten players,he has won many a heart than the matches he has won in this period. His isn’t the most attractive game but can be the best example of the virtues that staying in a point and not giving it up for a winner can offer. With victories in Cincinatti and Madrid Masters’ he completed 08 consolidating his position at the tail of the top Four. The year 09 began in the best possible way – He defeated Federer and Nadal at Doha Exhibition and was a strong media favorite to win the Norman Brookes trophy at Melbourne – Yes.Djokovic and Federer wouldn’t agree though! His only blemish came when he suffered at the hands of an enraged Verdasco in the 4th round of the year’s first grand slam. He followed that up with wins in Amsterdam(defeated Nadal) and Miami(Defeated Djokovic). He has started the clay season in the best possible fashion,reaching the Semis at Monte Carlo. He was nowhere near being a threat in clay ,sametime last year.But now,he would be in the semis consistently. Thanks to his poor clay season 08, he is lucky defending the least points among the three in context and will probably pile up the most,taking current form into account.So, by the time he heads to the lawns of Wimbledon ,he might have the No.2 by his side.Likelihood – 45%

World No.3 for somewhere close to two years now,Novak Djokovic would be the most tempted man to snatch the coveted No.2 spot (Coveted because Nadal is No.1 and it would do good forgetting that spot than longing for it! ).
What would be more frustrating is the fact that he came so close to getting there,once each when Nadal and Federer were there.He came as close as being two points away from Federer and what did he do? He messed it up with a loss against Verdasco in Brisbane.In retrospection,the Djoker’s game has seen more ups and downs than -well ,as they always say..yes,- the BSE.He was runner up to Murray at Cinci but didn’t show great touch till the TMC where he won in a field that was deprived of Rafa.He didn’t face Murray too there.Things got worse when he continued his dubious distinction of never defending a title in his career at the Aus Open where he lost to Roddick-No,I wouldn’t mention he retired. Frustrations started looming large when he lost to Tsonga 4 times in a row.And when everyone thought Djokovi was not up there,he came up with Runner-up efforts against Murray(Miami) and Rafa(Monte Carlo). Winning a set off Rafa in the dirt is worth a special mention and that puts him the first threat for Rafa on clay – As they say,Probability is always right and Rafa has to lose someday. He had won at Rome last year and was a semi-finalist at Hamburg.So,he would be losing a lot of points.We will have to keep our fingers crossed to see if he can compensate and win a lot of points to go No.2 and set up an ideal draw that would pit him against Rafael Nadal in a dream final at SW19.Likelihood – 35%
So,all this sets up an intriguing phase of contest for tennis lovers before the Queen of Grand Slams begins at Wimbledon on June 22.

Let's wait and watch.

What?!What else are you looking for!Did I miss something??

Oh.Yeah..Didn’t you see. 45 and 35 add up to 80.So,the remaining 20% is for him.

Not just because he is the shadow of Roger Federer,smashing racquets,netting backhands,hitting long forehands,the winner of 8 hard court grand slam singles’ titles who says “Thank god!The hard court season is over”.He had won at Hamburg,was a quarter finalist at Rome and a finalist at RG(Ya..That was him and that still is him!).With defeats at the hands of Blake,Karlovic,Simon(twice) and Murray(5 times in a row) over the period in discussion,he definitely doesn’t look as threatening as the other two.The loss to Wawrinka isn’t to be taken too seriously as he was trying out a few new things and was under prepared.The Madrid and Rome Masters will expose his current form ahead of RG.
I know he is very much capable of making this piece of blog and its calculations a gross blunder.And I would be very happy to see that happen!