Who wins the Cliff-hanger sets?!

It’s a known fact that since Safin’s ceremonious Australian Open victory in 2005, the quartet of Roger, Rafa, Nole and Andy have won 30 of the 31 grand slams contested since 2005 (Though Djokovic comes into the picture only in 2008 and Murray only in 2012!). They are considered by many former players, legends like McEnroe included, to be part of the best top-4 in any era of Men’s tennis. One reason for such domination is the way they have been able to handle pressure in situations that were demanding.

Who wins the cliffhangers?!

 The ethereal beauty of the sport that tennis is, has been the fact that in tough contests, the player who wins the important points, more often than not, wins a match. More of this in the last paragraph of this article! A lot of such important points pop-up in what is known as the business end of sets. This piece takes a look at how these 4 players, when playing among themselves, have handled situations after set scores have read 5-5! Against other lower ranked opponents, all 4 have been mightily successful in finishing sets off when push comes to shove at a 5-5 or a 6-6. Here, we’ll see who has been the most dominant of the top-4 in the 7-5, 7-6 cliffhangers played among themselves!

Here’s a matrix showing the number of tie-break sets the 4 have played against one another.

Federer and Nadal have played 38 TB sets (a staggering 20 TB sets between themselves!), almost twice the number of TB sets Murray has played against the other three! Big guys like some thrill, eh? No wonder most of the Federer Nadal sagas turn out to be epics.

When it comes to the 7-5 sets, here’s the matrix showing the number of such sets these players have played among themselves.

Nadal (23) separates himself from Federer (32) here; If Nadal gets to 5-5, it is almost certain that the set is to go to a Tie Breaker. He doesn’t like them 7-5 sets!  Djokovic, meanwhile, has a special liking for 7-5 sets, it seems. He tops this list with 35 sets! Federer-Djokovic matches are bound to have a lot of 7-5 sets; The duo account for 15 of the 54 7-5 sets held within the 4! The Murray-Nadal duels, (they are less in number compared to the Federer-Djokovic encounters) account for only 2 of the 54 7-5 sets in question!

Now to a list of how the 7-6 and 7-5 sets have influenced the outcome of matches!

Unsurprisingly, the numbers are skewed in favour of the winners. Still, there are some interesting insights one could gather from this list. Look at the Federer vs Nadal row! Among the 20 TB sets they have played, 12 have been won by the winner and the loser comes close winning 8 of them! Mentally, the two are rock solid and do not get as bogged down as say, Djokovic, when they face off! The Federer-Djokovic row tells a nice little story that men who bet for a living would be interested in. 23 off 28 such sets have gone to the winner!

Now, a little more deep-diving. Let us see how each of them have performed against one another in terms of a ratio of sets won to sets played.

Tiebreakers first!

The men who have held tennis duopoly for about 7 years have never gone below 50% in any of their tie-break match-ups with the other 3 (Their numbers are all green – over 50% success rate). Djokovic’s record (all in Red) is dubious; That too for someone who is considered to be currently,the best returner in the sport! He doesn’t have even a 50% success in tie-breakers when he plays the others in the 3. So, for the other 3, one goal when they face off Djokovic would be to somehow hold serve and get the set to a tie-break from where they could seek history’s help! On the other hand, for all the criticism the Nadal serve has taken (supposedly the weakest part of his game), he has the best record of them all in Tiebreakers: a game which supposedly favours the big servers! ‘Nerves first, Serves next!’ seems to be the unsaid truth regarding tie-breakers from what we see in the table here.

7-5 sets now!

Here, Federer loses the stranglehold he otherwise held in the other stats so far. He has a below par record against Murray and Nadal and only slightly, edges past Djokovic, who again, is the worst of the lot! In all matches Murray has played against the other 3, never has the match loser won a set 7-5! Again, a stat for the betters and superstitious to watch out for. Rafa dominates the other 3 here as well, with winning %s of 7-5 sets won!

Now for the result!

If one needed to choose just one hero for the cliffhanger tale, just the one who handles pressure best in match-ups of top-4, all stats point to one name – Rafael Nadal! No wonder he has a winning record against the other 3! Another myth that this busts is that Djokovic, with a super serve and a super return and a will to save match points and win contests, is not at his best when it comes to tight sets against his beloved top-runners!

If you still feel the 7-5 7-6 sets are not any more important than other sets in deciding match outcomes, here’s something. Federer had won more points than Nadal in both the Rome final of 2006 and the Australian Open final of 2009. But Rafa pulled off 4 of the 5 ’7-5 7-6′ sets contested in these matches and won both the encounters!

In search of the 'Next Big Thing' in Men's Tennis

Rafa made ‘HIS7ORY’ with his 7th triumph at Roland Garros. It is quite likely that he will do ‘H17tory’ with his 17th slam by 2014. Despite a shuddering exit for Rafa at Wimbledon this year, it is likely that we  see a lot more Rafa – Nole heavyweight tussles in Grand Slam finals in the coming years.

If we look at tennis by decades, the decade when Bjorn Borg was accumulating Grand slam silverware, Newcombe & Connors shared much of the remaining spoils. Then came the enigmatic McEnroe only to get his glory cut short by Wilander and Lendl. They were then succeeded by Edberg & Becker. Then came the era of Sampras and Agassi who were perturbed only slightly by the likes of Courier and Rafter. When the baton was passed from Pistol Pete to a feisty Federer, it was Hewitt and Roddick who were hogging the limelight before Federer could bloom into the champion he went on to become. Federer was not even 24 years old when the ‘freak from Majorca’ (as Agassi once said) started competing for Grand Slam glory. When Rafa was around 25, Djokovic was handing out to Nadal what Nadal was handing out to Federer: trouble! A close observation on all these top-level transitions would reveal the emergence of the next big thing. With the current scenario however, it doesn’t appear that this pattern at the top is going to continue. The top-2 are set to rule the roost. Evidence below.

Rafa is 26, Djokovic is 25 and the most likely slam contenders are Murray (come on, give him a chance, at least on paper!) who’s 25, Del Potro who’s 23 (his doctors might not agree) and maybe the likes of Tsonga (his level of play in the quarters at RG gets him the space here) who is 26 again! Where are the 20-21 year olds? Are there any champions likely to emerge? Will 2012-13 be a breakthrough season? The answer to these questions, looking at performances, is pretty straight-forward – ‘not likely’. We see the ‘big four’ close to being unreachable at the top. A pattern that seems to be emerging is that the ‘next four’ are getting pretty consistent too. They appear unreachable too. This means the same Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potros of the world are the ones to bite the dust in the quarters against the big four. Much worse, those who appear to threaten them too are the Tipsarevics, the Almagros and the Isners of the world. And these players that have been mentioned are not getting any younger either.

That shows us why the first line of the article is not some impractical babbling. Do we see any young out-of-their-teen threats in the top 20? The first name that would cross one’s mind is probably Milos Raonic, who is actually just outside the top-20. (Unless you are an Australian who upon reading this piece is furious for not mentioning Bernard Tomic). Raonic is good, yes. His serves are almost impenetrable, yes. But can he handle the Rafa – Djoker slug-fests if he were to meet them on the second week in a Grand Slam? Common sense would say, ‘probably not’. And to the flag-bearers of Tomic – I’m sorry. He loses to relative unknowns in early rounds of the tournaments and he needs a much better arsenal than his fusion of 70s-2000s tennis to trouble the top players. To the Americans who place their bets on Ryan Harrison, the only words I can think of are ‘keep hoping’. For people who feel ‘The Dog’ has it in him to breakthrough, his performances over the past few months is all I will put on the platter.

The only contenders who can break the beastly duopoly of Djoko-Rafa are either 23 or 25 years old (no prizes for guessing the two); Am I forgetting someone.. Oh, Yeah. There is one more. If a certain gentleman from Switzerland can re-surge for one last hurrah, the first statement tI have made becomes null and void. With due respect to Stanislas, no, I’m not talking about him here; not about Chiudinelli either.

Second Monday beckons at SW19. Let us see if that yet to be known ‘out-of-the-teens’ slam champion emerges at the sacred church of the sport. There have been occasions when such things have happened. If not at Wimbledon, where else to expect?

Beware of the cornered tigers!

While the tennis world is abuzz with the longest and most strenuous grand slam final that happened on Sunday, there would be two men who would be thinking they ought to have been there that very day clashing against each other in a repeat of the 2010 Australian Open Final. That was how close they came to reach the final at Melbourne. Murray, in his semi final against Djokovic dug deep in the decider and even had a break point at 5-5. Federer didn’t get that close in his semi final against Rafa but the way he started the match would have made people feel – ‘slam no.17 is on its way’. But, with the result of the semi-final going against them, with two better gladiators surviving their onslaught, it is time for some reconnaissance for the Swiss and the Scot.

Talks of a Djokovic Calendar Slam, Calendar Golden Slam (with the Olympics about to happen in July this year), Novak Slam (which he will do if he wins the French title) and a Novak-Rafa Slam (if he defeats Rafa in the French final, he would have slammed Rafa in the final in all 4 slams) are already on! Rafa is not far behind the radar. As the clay season gets underway, he would be the toast of tennis paparazzi. That leaves behind the two men behind them. How will they fare? Will they somehow throw a surprise and take the limelight away from worlds No.1 and 2.? We will try to get an answer to these questions looking at how good or bad they have done in the past few months.

1. Andy Murray

His 2011 campaign started off with a bang where he came second only to Novak Djokovic at the final in Melbourne. But a third final loss in a slam took its toll on him and he faced shocking early round losses in the masters at Miami and Indian Wells. He came back on track at Monte Carlo, where he surprisingly took Rafa to three sets in the semis – A place where Rafa is yet to lose (He is a clean 35-0 there). He came tantalisingly close to breaking the Nole streak in Rome but succumbed in a third-set tiebreaker. At Roland Garros , he fell to eventual champion Nadal (again in the semis) in three straight but intriguing sets. Another shuddering semis loss at the same Majorcan hands at Wimbledon did him no good.He ended up losing a first round tie in the follow-up masters event in Canada. After a better showing in Cincinnati (where he won the title owing to Djoker’s retirement in the final), he did well at US Open but nothing prevented him from losing to Nadal in another semi-final! Then came the Asian swing where he was the man on the roll; He went on to win titles at Thailand, Japan (where he defeated Rafa in the final – a consolation to all his heartbreaking losses to the Spaniard) and Shangai. He came to London’s World tour final as one of the contenders but fizzled out with an injury.

His new year 2012 started with an association with one of the greats of the game Ivan Lendl and the results are already showing it seems if tennis pundits are to be believed. 

Djokovic  said “Yes.  He was more confident on the court.  He was taking his chances.  He was being moreaggressive.  I think he was playing better (than last year’s final)”.

Key Take-aways: 2011 hasn’t been all that bad for Murray. If not for Rafa, he might have been a slam winner. He gave himself the chance by being there at least in the semis in all slams. The later part of the year was good. He has started off 2012 decently. If only he doesn’t let a concentration lapse, with better outings at Miami and Indian Wells (where he defends too less points) he can go past Roger to No.3 and that will do him a world of good in addition to the Lendl potion that is getting brewed and served!

2. Roger Federer

For Federer’s lofty standards, 2011 was one of his bad years. The first year since 2002 when he went slamless. After a terrific start to the season with a title at Doha, he succumbed to Djokovic for the second time in a semis clash at Melbourne. He followed that up with routine losses to Djoker in the final at Dubai and in the semis at Miami. At Indian Wells, his semis loss was at the hands of nemesis Nadal. A poor showing in the clay masters at Monte Carlo and Rome ( defeats to Melzer and Gasquet) threw him off the limelight and he came so close to getting back when he took a set off Rafa in the semis at Madrid. But that was all he could as Rafa improved his H2H against Roger to 16-9. At Roland Garros, Federer became red hot news for breaking the 41 match winning streak of Djokovic in an epic semi-final classic but he couldn’t cross the final mile against Rafa in the final. Back to back Wimbledon and Montreal losses to Tsonga and a thumping whacking by Tomas Berdych at Cincinnati took Federer still down but he came back well at Flushing Meadows where he nearly did the Roland Garros trick against Nole but eventully couldn’t close out. A break during the Asian swing was much welcome and back to back titles at Basel, Bercy and London’s World Tour Final put Roger right back on track to be the favourite for this year’s Australian Open. But Rafa again, a loss again and he must be kicking himself somewhere in the Swiss Alps pondering on how he can solve the riddles posted by Djoker and Rafa.

Key Take aways: Like Murray, Federer too had a terrific end of season last year and was up there in at least the semis in 3 slams in 2011. But, with Murray about to surpass him as world no.3, it would get mighty difficult for Federer to break back to the top and sail his 286^th week as No.1. That goal has to wait for a long time it seems. But he would be looking forward to the US Masters events to see if he can break the semis jinx against the top 2. If he can, he might well be on his way to week No.286 at the helm!

Wounded tigers lick their wounds for some time, ponder on how their hunt went wrong but they don’t just stop there. They come back stronger & hungrier at the unexpected moment. Beware Rafa and Nole – Watch out for some high decibel roars from Dunblane and Basel! If one of them turn it around and get into the top 2, that would change the entire dynamics opening up different possible semi final and final clashes (witthin the four of course!) which would make the men’s game even more interesting.

125th Championships at Wimbledon - Privileged to witness it!

“If you can meet with triumph and disaster

and treat those two impostors just the same”

It is time for the players to get inspired before going on court with a look at this hard-hitting verse from Rudyard Kipling’s poem ‘If..’ in the hall of fame of the most sacred of sports arenas around the world. The 125th Championships at Wimbledon will start come Monday and the draws are out today.

On the men’s side, this could probably be the most intense Wimbledon in a few years as the top 4, all 4 having reached the semi final Roland Garros and 3 of them at the Australian Open, have been on top slam form and a ‘Seeds 1-4’ Semi final line-up is more likely this year than it was in previous years. Bjorn Borg, the legendary Swede who has had 6 titles at SW19, feels Men’s tennis is enjoying its ‘golden age’ with the current top 4 appearing to be the best among top 4s of any era. Coming from a man who has had rivalries with the likes of McEnroe & Lendl, it goes on to show how privileged tennis fans of this era are. But, Wimbledon is not a place where certainties are undisturbed.
It is here that Goran Ivanisevic defied all odds to win the title as a wildcard in 2001.
It is here that Richard Krajicek stunned Pete Sampras enroute the title in 1996.
It is here that the baton was passed from Sampras to a pony-tailed Federer when no one expected it.
It is here that an inspired Berdych got the better of Roger in the quarter final stage last year!
So, expecting the unexpected is not a silly option at all at the Championships which has a court dubbed as the ‘graveyard’s court’ for the number of upsets that have been caused there!

Here’s a peep into the men’s draw.
On the top half are Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.

The defending champion has arguably been the best over the last few years at the Wimbledon grass and hasn’t been defeated here since 2007. His loss at the hands of Tsonga at Queen’s last week is to be considered just an aberration and despite his probable match ups with countryman Pablo Andujar who gave him a good fight at Paris, Del Potro (whose grass record has been next to nothing) & Berdych , it appears that he would sail through to the semis at ease where he will face Andy and his legion of british supporters!

Andy Murray carries the British hopes, yet again, but after semi final showings in the last two years and his best performance on clay this year, his chances to get his first slam at his home look bright. The likely hurdles in his path are the stylish Swiss Stan Wawrinka with whom he played that epic five setter in 2009 on the day when the centre court roof made its debut & the American Andy.If he can pull off a nice win in the probable Q/F match against Roddick, who has had a terrific association with Wimbledon, it will do his confidence a world of good and there’s always the partisan English crowd to encourage him.

The lower half boasts of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic; A semis tussle between these two seems to have become a norm in almost all slams! No regrets though; Blessed are we to see the two most elegant players fight it out for a spot in the final against the most likely candidate from the other half – The Mallorcan bull!

Roger Federer, the 6 time Wimbledon champion, is chasing Pete Sampras’s record for the most titles at the sprawling lawns of Wimbledon. With a good showing in the Parisian clay, he would back himself in a surface he has been lethal over nearly a decade. He had a difficult first round last year and a Quarterfinal exit ensued that. So, it is important for him to shrug off the first round hassles and look for making himself available for the business end of the tournament. A title here - he sets as the primary goal at the beginning every year – would be the one he would badly need, if he is to get to that 287 weeks at No.1 record. His probable match up with Nalbandian would be nostalgic but there’s not much threat, on paper, for Federer in his quarter.

Novak Djokovic, the golden-streak man, tasted his first defeat of the year at the French Open but that takes nothing away from his position as a chief contender for the title here. He hasn’t been at a final at Wimbledon yet with his best showings (Semi finals) coming in 2007 & 2010 but he would consider this to be his best shot at reaching the final and going even one step further, for, a slam on Grass is a dream for anyone who has won it elsewhere. He has had shocking defeats at the hands of the likes of Safin, Haas & Berdych in the past. So, his path to the semi final is going to be treacherous but his 43-1 record this year will do a world of good to his confidence and he is almost certain to be at the semi final, the only paper-hurdle being a possible Q/F clash against Soderling.

Two other interesting first round matches to look for are
1. John Isner (vs) Nicolas Mahut – The draw has made statistics go for a walk by making the 1/127 probability a certainty! Let us hope for a good match there, but not a 70-68 fifth set for the players’ sakes!
2. Robin Soderling (vs) Philipp Petzschner – This one is a potential toughie for Robin as Philipp is good on grass and is no pushover. He stretched Rafael Nadal to his limits last year and would definitely want to pull off an upset against the Swede

Dangerous floaters like Andy Roddick, Juan Martin Del Potro & Tsonga can collectively cause one or two upsets (against Berdych, Soderling, Ferrer) but it is almost certain that the one to lift the trophy would be one among Rafa, Roger, Nole and Andy(I’m just trying to be safe in saying just the first name ‘Andy’ cause the other Andy is the only one outside the top 4 who would consider himself worthy of a title at Wimbledon!)